The (Great) Outlook For NGVs In 2010

With the new year comes opportunities, but none greater than for the natural gas vehicle (NGV) market. For the first time, all the stars are lining up for the NGV industry to capitalize on its substantial market potential. As a result, 2010 may be the take-off year for NGVs in the U.S. From a base of 300 million gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) in 2009, the use of natural gas in vehicles could grow to 10 billion GGE in 2020 or more. That’s 37 Bcf of natural gas in 2009 to 1,250 Bcf in 2020. What are all those “stars” that are lining up? Consider the following:

Clean Burning
The air quality benefits of NGVs are substantial. Natural gas burns cleaner than gasoline and diesel fuel. Not surprisingly, the first vehicles certified to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) ultra-low emission, super-ultra low-emission and Tier 2/Bin 2 standards were NGVs. The natural gas-powered Civic GX has won numerous awards for its environmental performance. In 2009, the Civic GX was rated the “Greenest Car in America” by ACEEE – for an amazing seventh year in a row. Compared to the gasoline Civic, the natural gas-powered Civic produces 95% fewer emissions of volatile organic compounds and 75% fewer emissions of nitrogen oxides – pollutants that contribute to ozone formation.

In fact, the vast majority of light-duty NGV models available have been certified to the Federal Tier 2/Bin 2 standard; only Bin 1, which requires zero emissions, is more demanding. In the heavy-duty area, Cummins Westport’s and Emission Solutions’ heavy-duty natural gas-powered engines were the first engines to certify to the full-2010 federal emission standards, achieving extremely low NOx emissions levels well ahead of their diesel competition.

Further, the benefits of NGVs are expected to continue to improve as new automotive technologies become available. A recent National Academy of Science (NAS) report, entitled “Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use” includes some very positive findings concerning NGVs. The report, which analyzes vehicle technologies as of 2005 and expected by 2030, projects that, with further expected improvements in vehicle technology and fuel efficiency, natural gas-powered vehicles will provide superior benefits in terms of criteria pollutant reductions compared to nearly all other types of vehicles, even electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

EPA is now calling for even tighter national ozone emissions standards. As a result, NGVs will look even more attractive to local policymakers as a compliance option.

NGVs Reduce GHGs
Concern about climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) production is driving much of the public policy debate. NGVs can play a role in reducing such GHGs. Per unit of energy, natural gas contains less carbon than any other fossil fuel, and, therefore, produces lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per vehicle mile traveled. While NGVs do emit methane, another principal GHG, the increase in methane emissions is more than offset by a substantial reduction in CO2 emissions compared to other fuels.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has conducted extensive analyses on this issue, and concludes that burning compressed natural gas produces about 22% fewer GHGs than burning diesel, and 29% less than burning gasoline. The comparisons are based on well-to-wheels analyses, and include all methane emissions. These reductions are equal to - or better than - some renewable liquid fuels.