Pipeline Constraints, LNG Growth to Shape U.S. Gas Markets This Summer

Pipeline constraints and new LNG capacity are expected to shape U.S. natural gas markets this summer, as demand from power generation and exports continues to grow.

(P&GJ) — Pipeline capacity constraints and new LNG export volumes are expected to define North American natural gas markets this summer, according to a Wood Mackenzie outlook on April 21.

U.S. production growth is projected to remain limited, with takeaway constraints in key regions including the Permian Basin and the Northeast restricting output despite strong underlying supply.

Growth in Lower 48 production is expected to be modest, led by plays such as the Eagle Ford, while some regions could see temporary shut-ins tied to pricing and infrastructure limitations.

On the demand side, new LNG capacity is set to come online, including additional trains at Corpus Christi and Golden Pass, increasing export volumes and tightening domestic supply balances.

At the same time, rising power demand — including growth tied to data centers — is supporting natural gas consumption, reinforcing its role in balancing the grid.

Mexico is also expected to drive incremental demand, with power sector growth and new LNG infrastructure increasing feed gas requirements, although project delays and weather conditions remain key uncertainties.

Global factors are also influencing the outlook. Disruptions to LNG supply tied to the Iran conflict are supporting U.S. export economics and reinforcing the role of North American gas in global markets.

Wood Mackenzie analysts note that pricing dynamics are increasingly influenced by the interaction between production constraints, LNG exports and power demand, creating a more interconnected and volatile market environment.